The Productivity Redemption-Achievement Gap

By Dan Jaye, CTO

Legacy companies are spending currency they don’t have yet. Their best people are paying the price.

Two people gave me almost identical accounts in December. One in retail corporate finance: “My boss’s boss is now my boss. I had to absorb the work of two departments they eliminated without additional headcount.” Another in manufacturer logistics: “They fired my boss. I report to the director now. My team took on the work of two other teams they cut. We’re all stressed and can’t get it all done.”  They are not outliers.

The tale of eliminating management levels and consolidating teams is occurring at a pace I haven’t seen in 35 years building data infrastructure that feeds AI systems,

I’m watching companies cash in productivity gains that haven’t materialized yet. The gap between the promise and the reality is wider than anything I’ve seen.

Companies justify this restructuring claiming AI-driven productivity gains. The problem is in most cases, those gains are still aspirational. McKinsey’s 2025 State of AI survey found that 32% of companies are planning workforce cuts in the next year – but nearly two-thirds haven’t even begun scaling AI enterprise-wide. The cuts are based on expectations, not results. However, Forrester reports that 55% of employers already regret laying off workers for AI capabilities that don’t exist yet.

The cuts are happening now. The productivity improvements are aspirational.

The result isn’t lean efficiency. It’s overworked, stressed “survivors” who are demoralized, scared, and exhausted. They’re all thinking: “Will I be next?” Or worse, “When?”

This is the “Productivity Redemption-Achievement Gap.” Companies are trying to cash in on AI winnings before they’ve even achieved them. Wall Street is hungry for the increased profits promised by hundreds of billions in AI investment. AI bubble fears abound, despite a clear path to eventual gains. 

In some cases I believe the intent is to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Duress and hardship will be the forcing functions for realizing those AI proceeds. Desperation, not just necessity, will become the mother of invention.

And the execution strategies are often just as aspirational. Edicts like “All employees must use ChatGPT for writing emails” won’t create the outcomes justifying current share price growth.

I’m a believer in the power of AI. To make the complex accessible. To improve informed decision-making at strategic and tactical levels. To automate investments in quality and reliability that were previously hard to justify. To prove how AI creates value with your data, for your business.

We’re just not there yet.

Legacy enterprises trying to redeem their AI winnings before they’re achieved are borrowing from the bank of loyalty and regard of their “surviving” employees — the very people on whom they’re increasingly dependent. That debt will come due. Their ability to execute and innovate will walk out the door the moment something better comes along.

The question nobody is asking: What’s the true cost of cuts before the productivity actually arrives? A short-term stock bump isn’t worth losing the people who could have made it real.